Aaron Nesmith Points - Player Prop Bet 3/13/2026

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Aaron Nesmith

NBA · Player Props

Aaron Nesmith

G-F · Indiana Pacers

Points

Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks · Mar 13, 2026

Updated Mar 14, 2026 3:53 AM EST

Analysis

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-119/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -119.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In regard to shot attempts from beyond the arc, the 7th-most aggressive team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Pacers.
This year, the other team's starting SGs have averaged 44.7% on three-pointers (highest in the league) against the Knicks, identifying this as a good matchup.
The 3rd-most up-tempo tempo team in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Indiana Pacers.

Favors Under

The New York Knicks have played at the 5th-slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games, which should lead to decreased possessions for the Indiana Pacers.
The Indiana Pacers rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the New York Knicks is a challenging one for drawing fouls; the opposition's starting SGs have attempted a mere 1.9 foul shots per game this year (4th-least in the league).

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