Aaron Nesmith Points - Player Prop Bet 3/4/2026

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Aaron Nesmith

NBA · Player Props

Aaron Nesmith

G-F · Indiana Pacers

Points

LA Clippers vs Indiana Pacers · Mar 4, 2026

Updated Mar 5, 2026 3:33 AM EST

Analysis

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-113/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pacers check in as the 5th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 5 games when it comes to shots from behind the three-point arc.
The speediest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Indiana Pacers.
Over the last 10 games, opposing starting SGs have attempted 3.3 free throws per game (5th-most in the NBA) against the Clippers, easily managing to get to the free-throw line.

Favors Under

This year, the opposing team's starting SGs have averaged 11.6 shot attempts per game (5th-lowest in the league) vs. the Clippers, resulting in a hard matchup.
The Indiana Pacers will likely see a decline in opportunities in this contest from sharing the court with the 3rd-most lethargic pace team in the league this year (the LA Clippers).
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and lead to more opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Indiana Pacers grade out 1stworst in in the league while playing on the road with a mere 7.8 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.

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