Aaron Nesmith Points - Player Prop Bet 1/31/2026

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Aaron Nesmith

NBA · Player Props

Aaron Nesmith

G-F · Indiana Pacers

Points

Indiana Pacers vs Atlanta Hawks · Jan 31, 2026

Updated Jan 31, 2026 11:58 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-125/-102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 4th-fastest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Indiana Pacers.
The Indiana Pacers will likely see an increase in plays today from being pitted against the 2nd-fastest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Atlanta Hawks).
The matchup against the Atlanta Hawks may be a good one for getting to the charity stripe; opposing starting SGs have attempted a colossal 3.3 free throws per game over the last 5 games (7th-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

Over the last 20 games, the opposition's starting SGs have notched 15.1 points per game (5th-lowest in the league) vs. the Hawks, designating this as a tough matchup for offensive output.
The Pacers check in as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

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