Aaron Nesmith Points - Player Prop Bet 1/23/2026

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Aaron Nesmith

NBA · Player Props

Aaron Nesmith

G-F · Indiana Pacers

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers · Jan 23, 2026

Updated Jan 24, 2026 1:58 AM EST

Analysis

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This year, opposing starting SGs have averaged 44.1% on three-pointers (2nd-best in the league) against the Oklahoma City Thunder, labeling this as a good matchup.
The Pacers have played at the 6th-speediest tempo in the league over the last 15 games.
The Pacers will likely see an increase in opportunities today from sharing the court with the 4th-fastest tempo home team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Thunder).

Favors Under

Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and bring about extra opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Pacers grade out 5thworst in in the NBA with just 9.6 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games.
The matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder may be a difficult one for getting to the free-throw line; the other team's starting SGs have attempted a mere 1.9 foul shots per game over the last 20 games (least in the league).

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