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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 6/22/2025

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+100/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has made 3.4 three-pointers per game over the last 10 games on the road, 1.1 higher than he's converted from 3-point range overall this season while playing on the road.

In terms of scoring, the Pacers's exceptional 119.0 points per game while playing away from home places 3rd-best in the NBA over the last 25 games.

The 8th-most up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Pacers.

The Indiana Pacers are expected to see a spike in possessions today from competing against the 5th-quickest pace home team in the league this year (the Oklahoma City Thunder).

Aaron Nesmith has converted an impressive 89.4% of his free throws this season, quite a bit higher than his 81.5 rate last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has committed 4.8 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.8 higher than he's committed in all games this year.

The matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder is a hard one for 3-pointers; opposing starting SFs have put up the 2nd-lowest 3-point rate in the league this year (25.5%).

Offensive rebounds save possession and create more opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Pacers grade out 2ndworst in in the NBA with only 8.9 offensive rebounds per game this year.

Aaron Nesmith will likely suffer a drop-off in efficiency across the board due to being on the road in this matchup.

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