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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 6/16/2025

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (+106/-136).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -128 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ +106.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has sunk 3.4 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 10 games on the road, 1.1 higher than he's sunk in all games this season without the home court advantage.

The Indiana Pacers have been the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 25 games when playing away from home.

The 7th-fastest pace-of-play team in the league over the last 15 games has been the Indiana Pacers.

The Indiana Pacers will likely get a boost in opportunities in this game from sharing the court with the 5th-fastest pace-of-play home offense in the NBA this year (the Thunder).

In comparison to last year's 81.5% mark, Aaron Nesmith's foul-shot prowess has risen this year to 90.0%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has accumulated 4.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 more than he's accumulated over the course of the season.

The matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder is a tough one for 3-point shots; the opposition's starting SFs have compiled the 2nd-lowest three percentage in the league this year (25.5%).

The Pacers have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Aaron Nesmith will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home city tends to lower player production in all facets of the game.

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