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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 6/13/2025

Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (+106/-136).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -106 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -136.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has sunk 2.7 3-point shots per game over the last 15 games, 0.6 more than he's converted overall this year.

In terms of offense, the Pacers's stellar 118.4 points per game while playing at home comes in as the 5th-most in the league this year.

The Indiana Pacers have played at the 9th-fastest tempo in the NBA this year.

The Thunder have played at the 6th-quickest pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which ought to increase plays for the Indiana Pacers.

Aaron Nesmith has successfully made a terrific 89.8% of his foul shots this year, a sizeable increase from his 81.5 mark last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has averaged 4.0 personal fouls per game over the last 15 games, 1.1 higher than he's averaged over the course of the year.

The matchup against the Thunder is a difficult one for threes; the opposing team's starting SFs have shot for the 2nd-lowest 3-point rate in the NBA this year (25.5%).

Offensive rebounds preserve possession and produce added opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Pacers grade out 1stworst in in the league with a mere 7.6 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games.

Over the last 10 games when they are playing at home, opposing starting SFs have attempted 2.0 foul shots per game (2nd-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder, struggling to draw fouls.

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