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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 6/11/2025

Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-230/+170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -250 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -230.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has sunk 2.7 shots from downtown per game over the last 15 games, 0.6 more than he's converted from downtown in all games this season.

In terms of scoring, the Pacers's terrific 118.4 points per game while playing at home measures as the 5th-most in the NBA this year.

The 6th-speediest pace-of-play home team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Indiana Pacers.

The Pacers are expected to see a rise in opportunities today from competing against the 6th-quickest tempo team in the NBA this year (the Oklahoma City Thunder).

Aaron Nesmith has made a whopping 89.8% of his foul shot attempts this season, a sizeable increase from his 81.5 rate last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has accumulated 3.8 personal fouls per game over the last 15 games, 0.9 more than he's accumulated in all games this season.

This year, opposing starting SFs have shot 25.5% on threes (2nd-lowest in the league) against the Oklahoma City Thunder, designating this as a difficult matchup.

The Pacers check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

Over the last 10 games when they are on their home court, the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted 2.0 free throws per game (2nd-fewest in the league) against the Thunder, struggling to get to the free-throw line.

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