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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 6/5/2025

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-250/+185).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -260 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -250.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has successfully made 3.1 shots from downtown per game over the last 15 games on the road, 0.9 higher than he's converted from downtown in all games this year on the road.

Aaron Nesmith has tallied 31.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games while playing on the road, 6.6 higher than he's tallied over the course of the season on the road.

As it relates to scoring, the Pacers's impressive 120.6 points per game as the visting team comes in as the best in the NBA over the last 20 games.

The Pacers have played at the 9th-quickest pace-of-play in the league this year.

The Pacers will likely see a spike in plays in this game from squaring off against the 4th-quickest tempo home team in the league over the last 15 games (the Oklahoma City Thunder).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has averaged 4.0 personal fouls per game over the last 15 games, 1.1 higher than he's averaged overall this year.

This year, the opposing team's starting SFs have averaged 25.5% on 3-pointers (2nd-lowest in the league) vs. the Thunder, branding this as a tough matchup.

Offensive rebounds retain possession and lead to added chances for scoring and assists, but the Indiana Pacers grade out 1stworst in in the NBA with just 7.1 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.

Aaron Nesmith will not have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home court tends to reduce player production across the board.

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