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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 5/21/2025

New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has made 3.0 three-point shots per game over the last 10 games on the road, 1.0 higher than he's made from beyond the arc over the course of the season when playing on the road.

The Indiana Pacers have been the highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games away from home.

The Pacers have played at the 4th-quickest pace in the NBA over the last 10 games away from home.

In contrast to last year's 81.5% rate, Aaron Nesmith's foul-shot efficiency has jumped this year to 90.5%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has tallied 4.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 more than he's tallied in all games this year.

The matchup vs. New York is a tough one for shots from the field; when the New York Knicks have the home court advantage, the other team's starting SFs have compiled the lowest Field Goal% in the league this year (33.3%).

The New York Knicks have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games on their home court, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the Indiana Pacers.

The Indiana Pacers rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

The matchup against the New York Knicks may be a hard one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposition's starting SFs have attempted a measly 2.5 free throws per game over the last 15 games (9th-least in the NBA).

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