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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 4/27/2025

Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has successfully made 53.1% of his 3-point attempts over the last 15 games, 9.4% more than he's sunk over the course of the year.

The Pacers have been the highest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games when playing on the road.

The matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks is a positive one; they have given up the 3rd-most points per game in the NBA to opposing starting SFs over the last 5 games (19.8).

The Pacers have played at the 3rd-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games as the away team.

The Bucks have played at the 8th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA at home this year, which should increase opportunities for the Pacers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has committed 2.4 personal fouls per game while playing on the road this year, putting him in the 86th percentile -- among the league's highest-fouling.

Offensive rebounds retain possession and lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Pacers rank 2ndworst in in the league with a mere 9.1 offensive boards per game this year.

Aaron Nesmith will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home city tends to lower player production for all stats.

More Aaron Nesmith Player Props

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