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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 4/22/2025

Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (+100/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -128.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Out of all players in the NBA, Aaron Nesmith registers in the 89th percentile for three-point efficiency at home with a very good 43.3% rate this year.

As it relates to offense, the Indiana Pacers's stellar 120.4 points per game places 3rd-highest in the NBA over the last 20 games.

The matchup vs. Milwaukee is a positive one for shots from the field; when the Bucks are on the road, the other team's starting SFs have tallied the 3rd-most shots made from the field per game in the league this year (7.0).

The Indiana Pacers have played at the 7th-quickest tempo in the league this year.

Aaron Nesmith has converted a whopping 90.6% of his free throw attempts this season, quite a bit more than his 81.5 rate last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has averaged 2.5 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most highest-fouling players in the NBA (92nd percentile).

The Milwaukee Bucks have played at the 9th-slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games away from their home stadium, which ought to lead to decreased possessions for the Indiana Pacers.

The Pacers rank as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

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