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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 4/19/2025

Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-105/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has converted 54.1% of his attempts from downtown over the last 15 games, 11.1% higher than he's converted from three overall this season.

The Pacers check in as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 15 games.

This year when they have the home court advantage, the other team's starting SFs have tallied 7.0 buckets per game (3rd-most in the league) against the Milwaukee Bucks, marking this as a favorable matchup.

The Pacers have played at the 5th-speediest pace in the NBA over the last 20 games.

Aaron Nesmith has made a whopping 90.6% of his free throw attempts this year, a significant increase from his 81.5 mark last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has committed 2.5 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the highest-fouling players in the league (91st percentile).

The Bucks have played at the 9th-most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games, which should reduce plays for the Pacers.

The Pacers have been the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

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