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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 4/10/2025

Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-132/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ +104 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has converted 52.4% of his 3-point attempts over the last 15 games, 9.8% more than he's converted from 3-point range in all games this year.

The Pacers rank as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games.

The 7th-fastest pace-of-play home team in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Indiana Pacers.

The Cavaliers have played at the 8th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league this year, which should boost plays for the Pacers.

Aaron Nesmith has successfully made a whopping 90.5% of his foul shots this season, significantly higher than his 81.5 rate last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Among all players in the NBA, Aaron Nesmith places in the 91st percentile for personal fouls, compiling a massive 2.5 fouls per game this year.

The matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers is a difficult one for shots from behind the three-point arc; the other team's starting SFs have tallied the 3rd-least three attempts per game in the NBA this year (3.9).

The Indiana Pacers check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games while playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

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