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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 4/6/2025

Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-125/-105).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has sunk 3.2 3-point shots per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.5 higher than he's converted overall this year while playing on the road.

Compared to last season's 3.5 mark, Aaron Nesmith's personal fouls per game have fallen this season to 2.6.

In regard to offense, the Indiana Pacers's superb 127.2 points per game while playing away from home measures as the 2nd-strongest in the NBA over the last 5 games.

The 7th-speediest pace offense in the league over the last 10 games has been the Pacers.

The Denver Nuggets have played at the 6th-fastest pace in the league on their home court this year, which should increase plays for the Pacers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The matchup against the Nuggets is a challenging one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; opposing starting SFs have tallied the 4th-least 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (3.9).

The Pacers rank as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

Over the last 20 games, opposing starting SFs have attempted 2.6 free throws per game (5th-fewest in the league) vs. the Nuggets, making it tough to get to the free-throw line.

Aaron Nesmith should experience a decrease in efficiency in all stat categories as a result of being on the road in this contest.

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