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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 4/2/2025

Indiana Pacers vs Charlotte Hornets

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has made 53.0% of his field goals over the last 10 games at home, 5.7% more than he's converted in all games this year at home.

Aaron Nesmith has converted 53.5% of his shots from behind the three-point arc over the last 10 games, 12.3% more than he's made from beyond the arc over the course of the season.

The Indiana Pacers rank as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games.

Over the last 5 games when they are at home, opposing starting SFs have scored 22.3 points per game (4th-highest in the league) vs. the Hornets, resulting in a strong matchup for offensive efficiency.

The 6th-fastest pace-of-play home team in the league over the last 25 games has been the Indiana Pacers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Out of all players in the NBA, Aaron Nesmith registers in the 93rd percentile for personal fouls, registering an enormous 2.6 fouls per game this year.

The Hornets have played at the 9th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA this year, which should lead to decreased possessions for the Indiana Pacers.

The Indiana Pacers rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games with the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

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