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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 3/31/2025

Indiana Pacers vs Sacramento Kings

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has made 53.0% of his field goal attempts over the last 10 games at home, 5.7% higher than he's made overall this year at home.

Aaron Nesmith has successfully made 54.7% of his attempts from beyond the arc over the last 10 games, 12.8% higher than he's made over the course of the year.

When it comes to offense, the Pacers's fantastic 123.8 points per game settles in as the 4th-highest in the NBA over the last 5 games.

This year, opposing starting SFs have totaled 2.3 three-pointers per game (3rd-most in the NBA) vs. the Kings, branding this as a positive matchup.

The 6th-speediest pace-of-play home team in the league over the last 25 games has been the Pacers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has been called for 2.6 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most highest-fouling players in the NBA (93rd percentile).

The Sacramento Kings have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games, which should lead to decreased plays for the Indiana Pacers.

The Pacers check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games while at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

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