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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 3/26/2025

Indiana Pacers vs Los Angeles Lakers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-102/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -102.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has posted 17.0 points per game over the last 5 games, 5.5 higher than he's posted in all games this year.

Aaron Nesmith has made 65.8% of his shots from downtown over the last 5 games, 24.4% more than he's made from beyond the arc overall this year.

Aaron Nesmith has been on the court for 30.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 5.3 higher than he's been on the court for overall this season.

The Indiana Pacers check in as the 6th-highest scoring offense in the NBA on their home court this year.

The matchup vs. the Los Angeles Lakers is a good one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; the other team's starting SFs have totaled the most three attempts per game in the NBA this year (5.8).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Among all players in the NBA, Aaron Nesmith places in the 92nd percentile for personal fouls, posting a monstrous 2.6 fouls per game this year.

The Los Angeles Lakers have played at the 6th-least up-tempo tempo in the NBA on the road this year, which should decrease plays for the Indiana Pacers.

The Pacers have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games with the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Over the last 15 games, the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted 1.9 free throws per game (lowest in the league) against the Los Angeles Lakers, making it tough to get to the charity stripe.

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