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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 3/19/2025

Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has sunk 3.0 3-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 1.3 more than he's made from 3-point range over the course of the season.

Aaron Nesmith has tallied 30.9 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 6.4 higher than he's tallied overall this season.

In terms of offense, the Indiana Pacers's stellar 118.8 points per game on their home court measures as the 5th-best in the league this year.

The 6th-most up-tempo pace home team in the league over the last 20 games has been the Pacers.

The Pacers will likely see a rise in possessions today from sharing the court with the 7th-quickest pace visiting offense in the league over the last 25 games (the Dallas Mavericks).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has averaged 2.6 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the most-whistled players in the NBA (92nd percentile).

Over the last 15 games, the other team's starting SFs have registered 11.4 points per game (2nd-lowest in the NBA) against the Mavericks, branding this as a challenging matchup for offensive efficiency.

The Pacers have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).

This year when they are playing at home, the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted 1.6 foul shots per game (2nd-fewest in the NBA) against the Mavericks, finding it difficult to get to the charity stripe.

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