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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 3/11/2025

Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (+104/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -132.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has sunk 3.2 3-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 1.7 more than he's converted from beyond the arc overall this year.

Aaron Nesmith has played 31.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 7.4 higher than he's played overall this season.

The Indiana Pacers check in as the 5th-highest scoring offense in the league while at home this year.

This year when they are on their home court, the other team's starting SFs have tallied 7.0 field goals per game (3rd-most in the league) vs. the Bucks, making this a good matchup.

The 5th-most up-tempo pace home team in the league over the last 20 games has been the Pacers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Among all players in the NBA, Aaron Nesmith measures in the 89th percentile for personal fouls, averaging a colossal 2.5 fouls per game this year.

The Pacers rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).

More Aaron Nesmith Player Props

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