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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 2/24/2025

Indiana Pacers vs Denver Nuggets

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+102/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ +102.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has attempted 4.2 treys per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 higher than he's attempted overall this year.

The Pacers have been the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games.

The Indiana Pacers have played at the 3rd-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games while on their home court.

Out of all players in the NBA, Aaron Nesmith comes in at the 96th percentile for foul-shot prowess with an excellent 95.2% rate this year.

This year when they are playing at home, the other team's starting SFs have attempted 3.2 foul shots per game (10th-most in the league) vs. the Nuggets, easily managing to draw fouls.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has accumulated 2.7 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the highest-fouling players in the NBA (93rd percentile).

The matchup vs. Denver is a tough one for three-point shots; when the Nuggets are the visiting squad, the opposition's starting SFs have tallied the least three-point shots per game in the league this year (1.1).

The Denver Nuggets have played at the 8th-most sluggish tempo in the league over the last 10 games without the home court advantage, which should reduce possessions for the Indiana Pacers.

Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and result in further chances for scoring and assists, but the Pacers rank 1stworst in in the NBA playing at home with only 7.6 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

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