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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 2/20/2025

Indiana Pacers vs Memphis Grizzlies

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-133/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -133.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Pacers check in as the 6th-highest scoring offense in the NBA with the home court advantage this year.

The 5th-speediest tempo offense in the league over the last 10 games has been the Pacers.

The Pacers will likely see an increase in opportunities today from sharing the court with the speediest pace team in the league this year (the Grizzlies).

Out of all players in the NBA, Aaron Nesmith registers in the 95th percentile for free-throw efficiency with a very good 94.1% rate this year.

Aaron Nesmith will enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing in your home stadium usually improves player performance in all facets of the game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Out of all players in the league, Aaron Nesmith slots into the 18th percentile for field goal ability while on his home court with a feeble 36.5% rate this year.

Aaron Nesmith has been called for 2.7 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the most foul-prone players in the league (93rd percentile).

The matchup against Memphis is a hard one for shots from the field; when the Grizzlies are on the road, the opposing team's starting SFs have averaged the 2nd-least shot attempts per game in the NBA this year (9.7).

The Indiana Pacers have been the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).

Over the last 12 games, the opposition's starting SFs have attempted 2.6 free throws per game (3rd-fewest in the league) against the Memphis Grizzlies, struggling to get to the charity stripe.

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