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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 2/4/2025

Portland Trail Blazers vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-108/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has made 66.4% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games on the road, 6.1% more than he's made over the course of the year when playing on the road.

As it relates to shooting, the Pacers's excellent 124.6 points per game places 3rd-best in the NBA over the last 5 games.

The 2nd-most up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Indiana Pacers.

Relative to last season's 81.5% rate, Aaron Nesmith's foul-shot ability has spiked this season to 93.3%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Among all players in the league, Aaron Nesmith places in the 95th percentile for personal fouls, posting a monstrous 2.9 fouls per game when playing away from home this year.

The Pacers are expected to suffer a drop-off in opportunities in this contest from facing the 2nd-slowest tempo team in the league over the last 5 games (the Trail Blazers).

The Pacers rank as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).

Aaron Nesmith figures to experience a decrease in production for all stats as a result of playing away from home in this matchup.

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