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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 1/29/2025

Indiana Pacers vs Detroit Pistons

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has converted 48.2% of his three-point attempts this year, ranking him in the 95th percentile among all players in the NBA.

In regard to scoring, the Indiana Pacers's superb 117.2 points per game on their home court comes in as the 6th-best in the league this year.

The matchup vs. Detroit is a positive one for 3-point shots; when the Detroit Pistons are away from home, the opposing team's starting SFs have compiled the 4th-highest 3-point rate in the league this year (45.0%).

The Indiana Pacers have played at the 8th-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 5 games.

The Pacers will likely see a rise in possessions in this contest from competing against the 6th-fastest pace offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Pistons).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has attempted just 5.6 shots per game this year, quite a bit lower than his 8.7 mark last year.

Out of all players in the NBA, Aaron Nesmith comes in at the 96th percentile for personal fouls, averaging a whopping 2.9 fouls per game this year.

The Pacers rank as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

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