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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 5/21/2024

Boston Celtics vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-157/+114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -157.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has sunk an impressive 41.6% of his 3-point shots this year, a significant increase from his 32.8 rate last year.

Aaron Nesmith has played 28.4 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 76th percentile.

This year, the opposition's starting SFs have averaged 5.8 3-point attempts per game (2nd-highest in the league) vs. the Boston Celtics, creating a positive matchup.

Offensive rebounds continue possession and create added chances for scoring and assists, and the Pacers grade out 10th-best in in the NBA when playing on the road with 10.5 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.

Aaron Nesmith has converted 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games on the road, 20.0% more than he's sunk overall this season while playing on the road.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has committed 3.4 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most most-whistled players in the NBA (100th percentile).

The Indiana Pacers check in as the 2nd-least aggressive offense in the league over the last 5 games when it comes to shots from behind the three-point arc.

The Indiana Pacers have played at the 6th-most sluggish tempo in the league over the last 10 games.

The Boston Celtics have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games, which should decrease possessions for the Pacers.

The matchup vs. Boston may be a hard one for drawing fouls; the other team's starting SFs have attempted a measly 2.6 foul shots per game over the last 10 games when the Celtics are playing at home (4th-least in the league).

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