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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 5/17/2024

Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Among all players in the NBA, Aaron Nesmith lands in the 93rd percentile for 3-point performance with a terrific 41.4% rate this year.

Aaron Nesmith has averaged 34.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games playing at home, 6.4 more than he's averaged in all games this season at home.

The Indiana Pacers have been the highest scoring offense in the league this year.

The matchup vs. New York is a good one for 3-point shots; when the New York Knicks are on the road, opposing starting SFs have compiled the highest three percentage in the league this year (48.0%).

Aaron Nesmith has made 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 18.1% higher than he's put through the net over the course of the season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has been called for 3.2 personal fouls per game with the home court advantage this year, ranking him in the 98th percentile -- among the league's most foul-prone.

The 8th-most lethargic tempo offense in the league over the last 10 games has been the Pacers.

The New York Knicks have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league this year, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Indiana Pacers.

The Pacers have been the 8th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league when playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

The matchup against New York may be a hard one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting SFs have attempted a mere 2.5 foul shots per game over the last 10 games when the Knicks are on the road (7th-least in the NBA).

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