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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 5/12/2024

Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has made 56.8% of his three-point shots over the last 5 games at home, 8.6% higher than he's converted from downtown in all games this season at home.

Aaron Nesmith has averaged 33.4 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 5.0 more than he's averaged overall this year.

The Indiana Pacers check in as the highest scoring offense in the league this year.

The matchup against New York is a good one for 3-point shots; when the New York Knicks are away from home, the other team's starting SFs have shot for the highest 3-point percentage in the NBA this year (48.0%).

Aaron Nesmith has converted 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 18.4% higher than he's sunk in all games this season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Out of all players in the NBA, Aaron Nesmith comes in at the 97th percentile for personal fouls, putting up a monstrous 3.2 fouls per game with the home court advantage this year.

The 6th-least up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Indiana Pacers.

The New York Knicks have played at the most lethargic pace in the NBA this year, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Pacers.

The Indiana Pacers rank as the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Over the last 10 games when they are at home, the opposition's starting SFs have attempted 2.5 free throws per game (7th-lowest in the league) vs. the New York Knicks, facing an uphill battle to get to the foul line.

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