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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 5/10/2024

Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-104/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -118.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has successfully made 41.7% of his 3-point attempts this year, placing him in the 93rd percentile among all players in the league.

Aaron Nesmith has tallied 34.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games playing at home, 6.1 higher than he's tallied overall this season at home.

The Indiana Pacers check in as the highest scoring offense in the league this year.

The matchup vs. New York is a favorable one for threes; when the Knicks are on the road, opposing starting SFs have compiled the highest 3-point rate in the NBA this year (48.0%).

Aaron Nesmith has converted 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 18.7% more than he's made overall this season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Out of all players in the NBA, Aaron Nesmith comes in at the 97th percentile for personal fouls, averaging a whopping 3.2 fouls per game while on his home court this year.

The 10th-least up-tempo tempo team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Indiana Pacers.

The Pacers will likely see a decline in possessions in this contest from facing the slowest pace-of-play team in the NBA this year (the Knicks).

Offensive rebounds preserve possession and create bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Pacers rank 8thworst in in the league when playing at home with a mere 9.8 offensive rebounds per game this year.

Over the last 10 games when they are playing at home, the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted 2.5 free throws per game (7th-lowest in the league) vs. the New York Knicks, struggling to get to the foul line.

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