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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 4/26/2024

Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Relative to last season's 32.8% clip, Aaron Nesmith's 3-point performance has surged this season to 42.8%.

The Pacers check in as the highest scoring offense in the league this year.

This year when they are playing at home, the opposing team's starting SFs have totaled 7.0 buckets per game (3rd-most in the league) against the Milwaukee Bucks, identifying this as a favorable matchup.

The Indiana Pacers have played at the fastest tempo in the league as the home team this year.

Aaron Nesmith has successfully made 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 19.8% more than he's put through the net over the course of the year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Among all players in the NBA, Aaron Nesmith slots into the 97th percentile for personal fouls, totaling a massive 3.1 fouls per game with the home court advantage this year.

The Milwaukee Bucks have played at the 9th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games, which ought to reduce plays for the Pacers.

Offensive rebounds preserve possession and produce bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Pacers grade out 7thworst in in the NBA while on their home court with only 9.8 offensive boards per game this year.

The matchup vs. Milwaukee may be a hard one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposition's starting SFs have attempted a mere 1.8 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when the Milwaukee Bucks are the visiting team (7th-least in the league).

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