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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 4/23/2024

Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-118/-102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -102.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Relative to last year's 32.8% rate, Aaron Nesmith's three-point performance has spiked this year to 42.8%.

Over the last 5 games, the opposition's starting SFs have tallied 19.8 points per game (3rd-highest in the NBA) against the Milwaukee Bucks, identifying this as a positive matchup for offensive effectiveness.

The Pacers have played at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA this year.

The Indiana Pacers check in as the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).

Aaron Nesmith has converted 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 19.8% higher than he's put through the hoop overall this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Out of all players in the league, Aaron Nesmith lands in the 100th percentile for personal fouls, tallying a whopping 3.4 fouls per game this year.

With respect to shots from downtown, the Indiana Pacers's poor 28.4% rate of drained threes when playing away from home places worst in the league over the last 5 games.

The Pacers are expected to suffer a reduction in plays today from squaring off against the 4th-most sluggish pace home team in the league over the last 5 games (the Bucks).

Aaron Nesmith will not hold the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home city generally reduces player performance in all facets of the game.

More Aaron Nesmith Player Props

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