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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 4/21/2024

Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-102/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -118.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

In comparison to last year's 32.8% clip, Aaron Nesmith's three-point efficiency has increased this year to 43.2%.

Over the last 5 games, the opposition's starting SFs have registered 19.8 points per game (3rd-most in the league) against the Milwaukee Bucks, marking this as a strong matchup for offensive efficiency.

The 2nd-speediest pace-of-play team in the league this year has been the Pacers.

The Indiana Pacers have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).

Aaron Nesmith has converted 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 20.2% higher than he's put through the net over the course of the year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Among all players in the league, Aaron Nesmith rates in the 100th percentile for personal fouls, totaling a monstrous 3.4 fouls per game this year.

The Bucks have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to decrease opportunities for the Indiana Pacers.

As a team, the Indiana Pacers have been poor at getting to the free-throw line of late: 5th-worst in the NBA over the last 15 games with a mere 17.7 free throw attempts per game.

Aaron Nesmith ought to suffer a reduction in performance for all stats due to playing away from home in this matchup.

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