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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 4/12/2024

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

In comparison to last season's 32.8% mark, Aaron Nesmith's 3-point ability has risen this season to 43.1%.

The 2nd-fastest pace-of-play offense in the league this year has been the Indiana Pacers.

The Indiana Pacers have been the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games without the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).

Aaron Nesmith has sunk 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 21.0% more than he's put through the hoop overall this year.

The matchup against the Cavaliers is a good one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting SFs have attempted a whopping 3.8 free throws per game this year (4th-most in the NBA).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has averaged 3.4 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the most-whistled players in the league (100th percentile).

This year, opposing starting SFs have averaged 3.9 three attempts per game (3rd-fewest in the league) against the Cavaliers, identifying this as a hard matchup.

The Cavaliers have played at the most sluggish tempo in the league over the last 5 games at home, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Pacers.

As a team, the Pacers have been bad at drawing fouls recently: 7th-worst in the NBA over the last 10 games, totaling just 18.4 free throws per game.

Aaron Nesmith stands to see a decline in effectiveness across the board in light of playing on the visting team in this contest.

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