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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 4/9/2024

Toronto Raptors vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+100/-140).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has sunk a whopping 43.7% of his shots from downtown this year, quite a bit more than his 32.8 mark last year.

The Pacers have played at the 2nd-quickest pace in the NBA this year.

The Raptors have played at the speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games in their home stadium, which ought to lead to increased plays for the Indiana Pacers.

The Pacers have been the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games while playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).

Aaron Nesmith has sunk 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 21.4% more than he's put through the net in all games this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has committed 3.4 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most foul-prone players in the NBA (100th percentile).

The matchup vs. Toronto is a difficult one for shot attempts from downtown; when the Raptors are at home, the opposing team's starting SFs have averaged the least 3-point attempts per game in the NBA this year (3.1).

As a team, the Indiana Pacers have been quite unsuccesful at drawing fouls in recent days: 5th-worst in the league over the last 5 games, averaging a lowly 16.8 foul shot attempts per game.

Aaron Nesmith figures to see a decline in output for all stats in light of playing away from home in this contest.

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