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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 4/7/2024

Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

In comparison to last year's 32.8% rate, Aaron Nesmith's three-point prowess has increased this year to 44.0%.

The Pacers rank as the highest scoring offense in the league this year.

The matchup against Miami is a favorable one for three-point attempts; when the Miami Heat are the visiting team, the opposing team's starting SFs have tallied the 3rd-most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA this year (5.8).

The most up-tempo pace home offense in the league this year has been the Indiana Pacers.

Aaron Nesmith has made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 21.8% higher than he's made in all games this season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has accumulated 3.1 personal fouls per game with the home court advantage this year, ranking him in the 96th percentile -- among the NBA's highest-fouling.

The Indiana Pacers are expected to suffer a reduction in plays today from being pitted against the most sluggish pace-of-play away offense in the league this year (the Miami Heat).

The Indiana Pacers check in as the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

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