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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 4/5/2024

Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Compared to last season's 32.8% mark, Aaron Nesmith's 3-point prowess has jumped this season to 43.8%.

The Pacers rank as the highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.

The Indiana Pacers have played at the speediest tempo in the league playing at home this year.

The Indiana Pacers will likely see a rise in opportunities in this game from facing the 6th-most up-tempo tempo offense in the league over the last 10 games (the Oklahoma City Thunder).

Aaron Nesmith has successfully made 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 22.3% more than he's put through the hoop in all games this season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Out of all players in the NBA, Aaron Nesmith comes in at the 96th percentile for personal fouls, putting up a monstrous 3.0 fouls per game with the home court advantage this year.

This year, opposing starting SFs have shot 25.5% on threes (2nd-worst in the NBA) against the Oklahoma City Thunder, identifying this as a tough matchup.

The Indiana Pacers check in as the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league while on their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

The matchup vs. Oklahoma may be a difficult one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposition's starting SFs have attempted a lowly 2.0 free throws per game over the last 10 games when the Oklahoma City Thunder are the visiting squad (2nd-least in the NBA).

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