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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 3/27/2024

Chicago Bulls vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-133/-103).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -133 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -103.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Relative to last year's 41.0% mark, Aaron Nesmith's field goal efficiency has jumped this year to 49.0%.

Aaron Nesmith has made a whopping 45.3% of his treys this season, quite a bit higher than his 32.8 rate last season.

Aaron Nesmith has averaged 32.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games away from his home court, 4.5 more than he's averaged overall this season on the road.

The Indiana Pacers have been the highest scoring offense in the league this year.

The 2nd-speediest tempo team in the league this year has been the Pacers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has averaged 3.4 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the most foul-prone players in the NBA (100th percentile).

This year, opposing starting SFs have shot 23.9% on threes (weakest in the league) vs. the Bulls, branding this as a challenging matchup.

The Pacers are expected to see a decline in opportunities in this contest from sharing the court with the 2nd-most sluggish tempo home team in the league this year (the Bulls).

Offensive rebounds retain possession and bring about more chances for scoring and assists, but the Pacers rank 6thworst in in the NBA with just 9.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.

Aaron Nesmith will not hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home court usually reduces stat production for all stats.

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