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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 3/24/2024

Los Angeles Lakers vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+102/-124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ +102.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Relative to last year's 41.0% clip, Aaron Nesmith's shooting effectiveness has jumped this year to 49.0%.

Relative to last season's 32.8% mark, Aaron Nesmith's three-point proficiency has spiked this season to 45.0%.

The matchup against the Lakers is a strong one for three-point attempts; the opposing team's starting SFs have totaled the most three attempts per game in the NBA this year (5.8).

The 2nd-most up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the league this year has been the Indiana Pacers.

The Lakers have played at the 4th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which should boost possessions for the Indiana Pacers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has tallied 3.4 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most highest-fouling players in the NBA (100th percentile).

The Indiana Pacers check in as the 3rd-least aggressive offense in the league over the last 5 games when playing on the road with respect to three-point attempts.

The faceoff with Rui Hachimura with respect to getting to the charity stripe rates in the 11th percentile for difficulty with the other team's starting SFs attempting a mere 2.1 free throws per game this year when they are playing on the road.

Aaron Nesmith will likely suffer a reduction in production in all stat categories considering playing away from home in this matchup.

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