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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 3/22/2024

Golden State Warriors vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Relative to last year's 41.0% mark, Aaron Nesmith's field goal efficiency has increased this year to 49.4%.

Aaron Nesmith has converted a whopping 45.2% of his 3-point shots this year, significantly higher than his 32.8 rate last year.

The Indiana Pacers rank as the highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.

This year, opposing starting SFs have averaged 47.0% on threes (best in the league) against the Golden State Warriors, designating this as a strong matchup.

The Pacers have played at the most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 15 games.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has accumulated 3.4 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the most-whistled players in the NBA (99th percentile).

Offensive rebounds save possession and create extra opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Pacers grade out 4thworst in in the league when playing on the road with only 8.2 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.

The matchup vs. Golden State may be a hard one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposition's starting SFs have attempted a lowly 2.4 free throws per game over the last 25 games when the Golden State Warriors are playing at home (3rd-least in the league).

Aaron Nesmith will not hold the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home city usually decreases stat production across the board.

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