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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 3/18/2024

Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-124/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ +102.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has made an impressive 45.7% of his shots from behind the three-point arc this year, a big improvement over his 32.8 rate last year.

The Pacers have played at the most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA while at home this year.

The Indiana Pacers have been the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games while at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).

Aaron Nesmith has made 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 23.8% more than he's put through the net over the course of the season.

The matchup against Cleveland may be a strong one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting SFs have attempted a whopping 4.4 foul shots per game over the last 20 games when the Cavaliers are on the road (2nd-most in the league).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has been called for 3.1 personal fouls per game playing at home this year, putting him in the 96th percentile -- among the league's most-whistled.

This year, the other team's starting SFs have tallied 3.9 three attempts per game (3rd-fewest in the league) vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers, making this a difficult matchup.

The Pacers will likely suffer a reduction in possessions in this contest from squaring off against the 5th-slowest tempo team in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Cavaliers).

As a team, the Indiana Pacers have been lousy at getting to the charity stripe playing at home: 7th-worst in the NBA this year, drawing a lowly 20.8 free throws per game.

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