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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 3/13/2024

Indiana Pacers vs Chicago Bulls

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-123/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -123.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has sunk an impressive 45.7% of his attempts from beyond the arc this season, quite a bit higher than his 32.8 rate last season.

The Indiana Pacers have been the highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.

The Pacers have played at the most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA as the home team this year.

Aaron Nesmith has converted 2.8 free throws per game over the last 5 games, 1.3 higher than he's put through the hoop in all games this season.

The matchup vs. the Chicago Bulls is a favorable one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted an enormous 4.5 foul shots per game this year (2nd-most in the NBA).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has averaged 3.8 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games while playing at home, 0.8 more than he's averaged in all games this season at home.

This year, opposing starting SFs have shot 23.9% on three-pointers (worst in the league) against the Chicago Bulls, labeling this as a difficult matchup.

The Indiana Pacers will likely suffer a reduction in opportunities in this game from facing the least up-tempo tempo road team in the league this year (the Bulls).

The Pacers have been the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

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