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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 3/12/2024

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Relative to last season's 41.0% rate, Aaron Nesmith's scoring performance has risen this season to 49.5%.

With respect to offense, the Indiana Pacers's remarkable 122.9 points per game settles in as the most in the league this year.

The 2nd-quickest pace offense in the league this year has been the Indiana Pacers.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 6th-quickest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games with the home court advantage, which ought to boost possessions for the Pacers.

Aaron Nesmith has made 2.6 free throws per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 more than he's put through the net over the course of the season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Out of all players in the NBA, Aaron Nesmith comes in at the 99th percentile for personal fouls, tallying a whopping 3.3 fouls per game this year.

This year, the opposition's starting SFs have shot 25.5% on 3-pointers (2nd-worst in the NBA) against the Thunder, creating a difficult matchup.

The Indiana Pacers rank as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Over the last 5 games, opposing starting SFs have attempted 1.4 free throws per game (4th-lowest in the league) vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder, facing an uphill battle to draw fouls.

Aaron Nesmith ought to see a decline in productivity across the board in light of playing away from home in this contest.

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