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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 3/5/2024

Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has sunk a whopping 46.1% of his treys this year, a sizeable increase from his 32.8 rate last year.

The 2nd-fastest pace-of-play offense in the NBA this year has been the Pacers.

The Pacers will likely get a boost in possessions in this game from squaring off against the 6th-most up-tempo tempo team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Dallas Mavericks).

Offensive rebounds save possession and bring about bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Pacers rank 7thbest in in the league with 12.8 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.

The matchup vs. Dallas may be a favorable one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted a massive 3.5 free throws per game over the last 17 games when the Mavericks are at home (23rd-most in the NBA).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has averaged 3.3 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most most-whistled players in the NBA (99th percentile).

The Pacers check in as the 6th-least aggressive offense in the league over the last 25 games as it relates to shot attempts from downtown.

The matchup vs. Dallas is a challenging one for threes; when the Dallas Mavericks are playing at home, the other team's starting SFs have totaled the 15th-least three-pointers per game in the NBA this year (0.8).

This year when they are the visiting squad, opposing teams have brought down 11.8 offensive boards per game (3rd-most in the league) against the Dallas Mavericks (preserving possessions that can result in extra opportunities for offense).

Aaron Nesmith has attempted and missed 0.6 foul shot attempts per game this year, placing him among the worst players in the NBA by this standard: 77th percentile for misses .

More Aaron Nesmith Player Props

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