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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 3/3/2024

San Antonio Spurs vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has sunk 50.6% of his field goal attempts on the road this year, putting him in the 76th percentile among all players in the NBA.

Aaron Nesmith has made 52.5% of his shots from downtown over the last 10 games on the road, 9.0% higher than he's made from 3-point range overall this year while on the road.

The 2nd-fastest pace offense in the NBA this year has been the Indiana Pacers.

The Pacers are expected to see a rise in possessions today from competing against the 3rd-fastest pace team in the NBA this year (the San Antonio Spurs).

Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and lead to further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Pacers rank 6thbest in in the league while playing away from home with 11.2 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has accumulated 3.3 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most foul-prone players in the league (99th percentile).

This year, the opposition's starting SFs have shot 36.0% on shots from the field (15th-worst in the league) vs. the Spurs, identifying this as a tough matchup.

As a team, the Pacers have been quite unsuccesful at getting to the charity stripe of late: 3rd-worst in the league over the last 20 games on the road, averaging just 20.2 free throws per game.

Aaron Nesmith will not enjoy the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home court generally lowers stat production in all facets of the game.

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