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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 3/1/2024

New Orleans Pelicans vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has successfully made 50.2% of his shot attempts from the field while on the road this year, ranking him in the 75th percentile out of all players in the league.

Aaron Nesmith has made an impressive 46.6% of his attempts from beyond the arc this season, quite a bit higher than his 32.8 rate last season.

Aaron Nesmith has been on the court for 31.6 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 4.6 higher than he's been on the court for in all games this season.

In regard to scoring, the Indiana Pacers's impressive 123.7 points per game settles in as the strongest in the league this year.

The Indiana Pacers have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo tempo in the NBA this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This year, the opposition's starting SFs have averaged 9.1 field goal attempts per game (15th-fewest in the NBA) against the New Orleans Pelicans, designating this as a hard matchup.

Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Pacers grade out 2ndworst in in the NBA with just 8.0 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.

When playing at home, the Pelicans have allowed the 5th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.4) in the league to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).

The matchup vs. the Pelicans may be a hard one for getting to the charity stripe; opposing starting SFs have attempted a measly 2.1 foul shots per game over the last 20 games (14th-least in the NBA).

Aaron Nesmith stands to suffer a reduction in effectiveness in all facets of the game considering playing away from home in this matchup.

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