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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 2/14/2024

Toronto Raptors vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-115/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -131 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has successfully made 7.6 baskets per game over the last 5 games on the road, 2.6 higher than he's put through the net overall this season while playing away from home.

Aaron Nesmith has converted 43.2% of his three-point attempts without the home court advantage this year, placing him in the 89th percentile out of all players in the league.

Aaron Nesmith has tallied 35.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games away from home, 7.2 higher than he's tallied in all games this year on the road.

In terms of scoring, the Indiana Pacers's fantastic 123.4 points per game rates highest in the NBA this year.

The 2nd-speediest tempo team in the league this year has been the Indiana Pacers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The matchup against Toronto is a hard one for shot attempts from downtown; when the Raptors are at home, opposing starting SFs have totaled the 15th-least three attempts per game in the NBA this year (3.1).

The Toronto Raptors have played at the 8th-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA in their home stadium this year, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Indiana Pacers.

Offensive rebounds preserve possession and spark added opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Pacers rank 1stworst in in the NBA with only 6.2 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.

When playing at home, the Raptors have allowed the 2nd-most offensive boards per game (12.4) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Aaron Nesmith ought to experience a decrease in effectiveness for all stats due to playing on the visting team in this game.

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