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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 2/6/2024

Indiana Pacers vs Houston Rockets

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-137/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -137 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -137.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has successfully made 56.7% of his shots from the field over the last 15 games at home, 5.5% higher than he's converted overall this year with the home court advantage.

Among all players in the NBA, Aaron Nesmith places in the 96th percentile for 3-point performance with a a very good 47.8% rate this year.

Aaron Nesmith has tallied 35.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 8.3 higher than he's tallied over the course of the season.

The matchup vs. Houston is a favorable one for three-pointers; when the Houston Rockets are the visiting squad, the opposing team's starting SFs have averaged the 28th-most three-point shots per game in the league this year (2.4).

The fastest tempo home offense in the NBA this year has been the Indiana Pacers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Among all players in the NBA, Aaron Nesmith registers in the 95th percentile for personal fouls, registering a colossal 2.9 fouls per game while at home this year.

As a team, the Pacers have been lousy at drawing fouls recently: 2nd-worst in the NBA over the last 15 games with a lowly 19.5 free throw attempts per game.

Over the last 10 games when they are playing at home, the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted 2.0 foul shots per game (14th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Rockets, struggling to draw fouls.

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