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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 2/4/2024

Charlotte Hornets vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-109/-122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ +112 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -109.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has successfully made 6.8 baskets per game over the last 5 games, 2.3 more than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year.

Aaron Nesmith has made 53.3% of his three-point shots over the last 10 games on the road, 10.1% more than he's converted from 3-point range in all games this year on the road.

Aaron Nesmith has tallied 35.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 8.4 higher than he's tallied in all games this season.

The matchup vs. Charlotte is a favorable one; when the Hornets are playing at home, they have allowed the 25th-most points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting SFs over the last 24 games (16.4).

The 2nd-speediest tempo team in the NBA this year has been the Pacers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Among all players in the league, Aaron Nesmith registers in the 99th percentile for personal fouls, tallying a whopping 3.4 fouls per game this year.

The Indiana Pacers are expected to suffer a drop-off in possessions today from sharing the court with the 3rd-least up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the league over the last 15 games (the Charlotte Hornets).

As a team, the Pacers have been poor at drawing fouls in recent days: worst in the NBA over the last 5 games, averaging a lowly 16.6 foul shots per game.

Aaron Nesmith will not have the home court advantage in this contest. Playing while traveling generally decreases player performance in all stat categories.

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