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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 2/1/2024

New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-137/-137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -137 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -137.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has converted 7.2 shots made from the field per game over the last 5 games, 2.7 higher than he's put through the net over the course of the year.

Aaron Nesmith has attempted 5.8 treys per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 more than he's attempted in all games this year.

Aaron Nesmith has averaged 35.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 8.5 more than he's averaged in all games this season.

The speediest pace road team in the league over the last 20 games has been the Indiana Pacers.

The Pacers have been the best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide new opportunities for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has accumulated 3.3 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the most foul-prone players in the league (99th percentile).

The matchup against New York is a difficult one for shots from the field; when the New York Knicks have the home court advantage, the other team's starting SFs have compiled the 15th-lowest field goal rate in the league this year (33.3%).

The Knicks have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA with the home court advantage this year, which ought to decrease plays for the Indiana Pacers.

As a team, the Pacers have been lousy at getting to the charity stripe recently: worst in the NBA over the last 5 games, tallying a measly 17.6 foul shots per game.

Over the last 15 games, the other team's starting SFs have attempted 2.5 foul shots per game (5th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the New York Knicks, facing an uphill battle to get to the charity stripe.

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