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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 1/26/2024

Indiana Pacers vs Phoenix Suns

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-117/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -117.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has successfully made 57.5% of his field goals over the last 10 games at home, 6.5% higher than he's converted overall this year on his home court.

In terms of scoring, the Indiana Pacers's superb 127.0 points per game while at home settles in as the most in the league this year.

The matchup against Phoenix is a strong one for threes; when the Phoenix Suns are the visiting team, opposing starting SFs have compiled the 23rd-highest three percentage in the league this year (41.1%).

The speediest tempo home team in the NBA this year has been the Pacers.

The Indiana Pacers are expected to get a boost in opportunities today from facing the 9th-speediest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Phoenix Suns).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has committed 2.7 personal fouls per game with the home court advantage this year, ranking in the 89th percentile -- among the league's highest-fouling.

Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in added opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Pacers rank 5thworst in in the NBA as the home team with a mere 9.5 offensive rebounds per game this year.

While playing on the road, the Phoenix Suns have given up the 3rd-most offensive rebounds per game (12.0) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new opportunities for scoring and assists).

The matchup vs. the Suns may be a challenging one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted a measly 1.6 free throws per game over the last 10 games (12th-least in the league).

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