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Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-103/-125).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -125.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Among all players in the NBA, Aaron Nesmith registers in the 96th percentile for 3-point prowess with a a very good 48.2% rate this year.The Indiana Pacers have played at the speediest pace in the NBA while on their home court this year.Offensive rebounds save possession and bring about extra chances for scoring and assists, and the Pacers grade out 6thbest in in the league with 11.2 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.Aaron Nesmith has sunk 88.1% of his free throw attempts over the last 10 games at home, 10.1% more than he's put through the net over the course of the season at home.This year when they are playing at home, the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted 3.2 free throws per game (21st-highest in the NBA) against the Denver Nuggets, easily managing to get to the free-throw line.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Aaron Nesmith has committed 2.7 personal fouls per game while playing at home this year, placing him in the 90th percentile -- among the NBA's most foul-prone.The matchup vs. Denver is a challenging one for 3-point shots; when the Denver Nuggets are the visiting squad, opposing starting SFs have totaled the 15th-least threes per game in the NBA this year (1.1).The Denver Nuggets have played at the most sluggish tempo in the league over the last 10 games away from their home court, which ought to lead to decreased possessions for the Pacers.Over the last 25 games, opposing teams have grabbed 10.9 offensive boards per game (9th-most in the NBA) vs. the Nuggets (continuing possessions that can result in more chances for offense).As a team, the Indiana Pacers have been quite unsuccesful at getting to the free-throw line in recent games: 4th-worst in the league over the last 10 games with a measly 20.7 foul shots per game.
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